lithium supplies

Open for any sort of non-technical discussion regarding EVs
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Tony23
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lithium supplies

Post by Tony23 » Tue, 23 Feb 2010, 18:30

thought some of you may find this interesting.

http://www.oilprice.com/article-energy- ... ction.html

EClubman
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lithium supplies

Post by EClubman » Tue, 23 Feb 2010, 22:52

OMG! Peak Lithium!

Sorry - we're not running out of Lithium any time soon, nor is there a global supply crisis.

Lithium is more like the fuel tank in an electric car than the actual fuel.
It is not consumed like petrol.

Pulling numbers out of my trousers, just say that it takes 5kg of Lithium metal to make a decent sized EV battery pack (about 3% of a Lithium battery's weight is actually Lithium).

This battery pack should have a 5-10 year useful lifespan (assuming it is looked after by a good BMS) in an EV.

At the end of it's EV life it will still have a decent capacity - perhaps 50% of what it was new - and can be repurposed to provide many more years useful service somewhere that the energy to weight ratio doesn't matter so much like off-grid power storage or something.
After these many more years (and it will be many more years because compared to the work it had to do in the EV it now living on easy-street, load wise :-) the batteries can be recycled, recovering some of the Lithium.

So, an EV will "consume" about 0.5 to 1 kg of Lithium per year (but that Lithium will be able to be reused for other purposes for many more years)

There are enough known reserves of Lithium to make battery packs for all the world's cars, and then half that number again.

There are other battery chemistries that are being developed so that if Lithium does look like a limiting factor, there will be alternatives.

Mark

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lithium supplies

Post by juk » Thu, 25 Feb 2010, 04:34

Consultancy Warns of Overcapacity in Global Li-ion Battery Market Between 2014-2017; Forecasts 6 to 8 out of Approx. 60 Li-ion Makers Will Survive
23 February 2010 6:00:00 PM AWST

The share of electrified powertrains will increase significantly in all major automotive markets, a development driven by dramatic battery cost decreases over the next 10 years. However, according to a new report from Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, planned investments in lithium-ion manufacturing will result in significant overcapacity between 2014 and 2017 relative to the demand generated by that growth, especially in the US and in Japan.

As a consequence, Roland Berger forecasts, only six to eight global battery manufacturers will survive the next five to seven years. These are the findings of a new market survey conducted by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants titled “Powertrain 2020: Li-ion batteries – The next bubble ahead?"

“Only six to eight global battery manufacturers will survive in the next five to seven years. The critical size will be approximately €600 million in revenues in 2015.”
—Wolfgang Bernhart, Partner with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
In an aggressive scenario, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and electric vehicles (EV) in the key regions still will account for no more than 1.2 million vehicles by 2015. Li-ion battery demand for hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and electric vehicles will account for 0.82 million “EV equivalents” of battery capacity, while installed capacities in 2015 will be more than 2.6 million EV equivalents. The demand for Li-ion batteries will continue to rise until 2020, but 3 million EV equivalents won’t be reached until 2018 at the earliest, according to the report.

Planned investments will this result in significant overcapacity between 2014 and 2017, especially in the US and in Japan. Given the announced investments, capacity in 2015 will already reach 200% of the demand projected for 2016. In addition, not all investments have been announced; as-yet unknown investments by key players will lead to further overcapacity, and national subsidies will stimulate even more investments.

In addition, high levels of R&D and CAPEX will be required to drive down costs fast: €50-100 million for new cell chemistry, €350 million for a 100,000 unit plant.

Western governments therefore need to act now in order to avoid losing future technologies to Asia; at the same time, battery suppliers need a well-defined strategy to gain market share fast in order to survive, the consultancy cautions. And last but not least, investors should be aware of massive investment risks. Wolfgang Bernhart, Partner with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, notes “Unfavorable factors are piling up. But managed correctly, electrified powertrains will still be a profitable market in the future.”

The conclusions and recommendations in the document were based on market knowledge of Roland Berger Strategy Consultants or drawn from information and data gathered through desk research and interviews.

http://www.rolandberger.com/media/pdf/R ... 100222.pdf

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/greencar ... 00223.html

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photomac
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lithium supplies

Post by photomac » Thu, 25 Feb 2010, 20:41

juk wrote: only six to eight global battery manufacturers will survive the next five to seven years.


Note - battery manufacturers will be affected not Lithium supply
Yes,   we can.   Image
Hyundai Kona 64 v1 Sept 2019 onward. 00016 up to 3850+
Mitsubishi PHEV v1 Apr 2016 to Aug 2019 14500 to 72000km
Nissan LEAF v1.0 Nov 2013 to Apr 2016 00035 to 36000km

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photomac
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lithium supplies

Post by photomac » Tue, 02 Mar 2010, 16:15

Well - this says no probs about lithium supply

http://www.dailytech.com/Lithium+Deposi ... e17677.htm

and on the side it says
"a third of a pound of lithium to deliver a kWh in a battery pack"
ie about 150g for a kWh
Yes,   we can.   Image
Hyundai Kona 64 v1 Sept 2019 onward. 00016 up to 3850+
Mitsubishi PHEV v1 Apr 2016 to Aug 2019 14500 to 72000km
Nissan LEAF v1.0 Nov 2013 to Apr 2016 00035 to 36000km

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